FX Week Ahead – Top 5 events: US inflation rate; FOMC minutes; Australia Employment Report; China CPI, loans; Retail sales in the United States

0

Preview of the coming week on the forex market:

  • Turning until mid-October sees a busy schedule in the second half of the week, especially for the United States.
  • Chinese inflation data and loan figures for September could help ease fears of a “hard landing” after fears of Evergrande default.
  • Australian jobs data looks grim, but even a modest improvement above expectations could help trigger a short covering rally in a crowded market.

For the whole week ahead, please visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

10/13 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD INFLATION RATE (CPI) (SEP)

Price pressures remain high in the United States, so much so that Federal Reserve officials have acknowledged that the inflation mandate “has been met.” Future data suggests that US inflation rates may not rise further, but rather stabilize – but stabilize at a level that will continue to suggest that the “inflation mandate has been met.”

According to a Bloomberg News poll, the headline September The US inflation rate is due in unchanged at +0.3% (m / m) and unchanged at + 5.3% (y / y), with an underlying inflation rate (excluding energy and food) expected at + 0.3% from + 0.1% (m / m) and unchanged at + 4% (a / a). The data will likely help keep US rate expectations firm, which has supported a stronger US dollar.

10/13 WEDNESDAY | 6:00 p.m. GMT | MINUTES OF THE FOMC MEETING IN SEPTEMBER

While the September Fed meeting did not result in an announcement to tap, it appears the groundwork has been laid for an impending cut in asset purchases. While the dot plot revealed policymakers were divided over the timing of rate hikes – nine predicted a 25 basis point hike in 2022, while nine only saw a hike in 2023 – the time of the decrease in asset purchases seems more concrete. Several policymakers, including those with historically conciliatory tendencies like Evans and Kashkari, have suggested that it may be appropriate to reduce asset purchases from this year.

10/14 THURSDAY | 00:30 GMT | AUD EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (SEP)

Lockdowns until mid-2021 affected the Australian economy, which lost 146.3K jobs in August, wiping out gains from the previous three months. As Australia’s vaccination has started to rise, suggesting the economy will rebound soon, lockdowns continued into September, suggesting employment data will remain weak. Australia’s economy has lost, according to Bloomberg News survey -120K jobs in August, aother significant drop. The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.5% to 4.7%.

But while the data is still slightly better than expected, the largest net short position in the futures market leaves the Australian dollar well positioned for a short hedging rally that could help pairs like AUD / JPY and AUD / USD realize their bullish technical potential.

10/14 THURSDAY | 1:30 am; 08:00 GMT | CNY INFLATION RATE (CPI) (SEP); CNY NEW YUAN LOANS (SEP)

Chinese economy has lost a step or two in recent months amid concerns that issues with real estate developer Evergrande are emblematic of more serious issues infecting the economy as a whole. But the next list of economic data has a chance to allay fears, as a rebound in Chinese inflation figures and lending data could help investors believe a “soft landing” is in the air. more likely than a “hard landing” – even if this landing is dampened by a larger debt cycle in the world’s second largest economy.

10/15 THURSDAY | 12:30 GMT | ADVANCE ON RETAIL SALE in USD (SEP)

Consumption is the most important part of the US economy, generating around 70% of the global GDP. Perhaps the best monthly insight we have on consumer trends in the United States could be the Advance Retail Sales report. US economic data for September was not great, with growth expectations falling to their lowest level for the quarter. Consumption fell with Advance Retail Sales at -0, according to a Bloomberg News survey.2% of +0.7% (m / m) in August. Likewise, the Retail Sales Control Group, the input used to calculate GDP, should be +0.5% of +2.5% (m / m).

ATLANTA FED GDPNOW: ESTIMATED GROWTH IN 3Q’21 (CHART 1) (OCTOBER 8, 2021)

Based on data received so far in 3Q’21, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow growth forecast is now at its lowest level for the quarter at + 1.3% on an annualized basis. This was due to “an increase in the now forecast of real gross private domestic investment growth in the third quarter from + 10.5% to + 10.7% was offset by a decrease in the now forecast of growth. real personal consumption expenditure in the third quarter from +1.1% to + 1.0%. Another downward revision could be due if September’s US retail sales report simply meets expectations – which could result in a weak weekend for the US dollar.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

element inside

element. This is probably not what you wanted to do! Load your application’s JavaScript bundle into the element instead.

Source link
Share.

Leave A Reply